One of the most popular Google searches relating to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is without doubt Bitcoin price predictions. In fact, if you’re reading this now, you probably searched for something similar yourself.
Over the years, many so-called experts from a variety of backgrounds have put their reputations on the line and made Bitcoin price predictions. These range from the seemingly inconceivable to the savagely pessimistic. Many times, in the past, price calls such as “$10,000 by the end of 2017” were ridiculed only to come true. The fact is, no one really knows where the Bitcoin price is heading. The only thing that is certain is that if the demand for Bitcoin increases, the price will follow. Being truly scare, there are no two ways about this.
There are some indicators that the demand will continue to increase. These include institutional interest from the likes of Fidelity, the Intercontinental Exchange’s Bakkt platform, and other high-profile financial players. It is a fair assumption that these respected names would not risk their reputations on some “flash-in-the-pan” fad.
Additionally, Bitcoin itself is changing. The base layer remains an impenetrable fortress of cryptocurrency. However, layers such as Lightning and Liquid Networks are increasingly adding utility to the network. With additional use cases, such as enhanced privacy or near-instant micro-payments, these improvements are adding to the fundamental value of the network, and will eventually allow for many more people to enjoy the benefits of decentralized finance.
However, there are also things that could decrease the price. A vulnerability in the code, like that discovered and patched last year, could have the potential to completely destroy all confidence in Bitcoin. Similarly, a new technology rendering Bitcoin obsolete could be discovered. This might be the threat posed by super-powerful quantum computers or it could be from some other revolutionary monetary system yet-to-be-discovered. Fortunately, for the purposes of this article, these scenarios are unlikely to occur in the next twelve months.
The Ultra Bullish
Cybersecurity pioneer John McAfee is no stranger to the world of Bitcoin price predictions. The founder of the anti-virus software provider has made perhaps the most infamous price prediction to date. McAfee made a bet with the crypto gods that the price of Bitcoin would reach $1 million by the end of 2020.
The eccentric software developer has stated that he had used a formula to work out this moon-shot price call. This formula would require the Bitcoin price to be $5,000 by the end of 2017. Of course, it was far greater than this.
Although the $170,000 target for 2019 has never been explicitly mentioned by McAfee, this is where the Bitcoin price would need to be on December 31, 2019, for his slightly longer-term prediction to come true. Fingers crossed – eh, John?
The CEO of Brave New Coin, a research firm focusing on the digital asset space, is the only pundit who we could find that is even more bullish than McAfee. Fran Strajnar didn’t grab as many headlines for his $200,000 price call by January 1, 2020. He gives little justification for his sky-high price prediction, simply citing increased adoption as the reason for parabolic growth in the market.
A somewhat more measured, yet still highly optimistic view comes from cryptocurrency analyst Ronnie Moas. He holds that Bitcoin prices will reach $28,000 during 2019. His reasons are based on simple economics – increased demand, decreased supply.
The Measured Bulls
The CEO of Galaxy Digital believes that Bitcoin will once again reach its all-time high of $20,000 at some point in 2019. The investment specialist told the Financial Times in November last year that Bitcoin will hit $10,000 in early 2019 again before moving upwards.
Novogratz cites the interest in digital assets emanating from institutional investors and the tailored services coming their way from the likes of Black Rock, Square, and Bakkt.
Like Novogratz, the CCO of Bitcoin payment processing firm BitPay states that Bitcoin will spend much of 2019 slowly climbing back up to its all-time high of $20,000. He also believes that huge flows of institutional money will flood into the market and these will be facilitated by tailored custody services, trading desks, and other regulated offerings that this higher class of investor is accustomed to.
Arthur Hayes is the CEO at BitMEX, an exchange specializing in derivative trading products surrounding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Hayes had originally predicted that the Bitcoin price would reach $50,000 during 2018. However, time proved him wrong and after the colossal downswing experienced last year, he has since revised his position. He now gives no actual figures, merely stating that there will be no renewed bullish momentum during 2019.
A Final Word
That said, we are still in the grips of a bear market. A lot of people were brutally burned by the speculative mania of 2017 and the subsequent crash back down to earth throughout all last year. For a natural market upswing to occur, enough time needs to pass before people feel comfortable investing money once again. All the while, developers are creating the infrastructure to better serve those choosing to say goodbye to fiat currency and embrace the cryptocurrency way. It seems highly likely that the next wave of optimism will also usher in a new speculative mania and, just like all those previous, the Bitcoin price will reach levels of the price predictions that caused folk to scoff when they were made.
Put simply, there are a lot of factors at play here. Any effort to make a price call needs to be taken with a massive pinch of salt.